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I last posted fertilizer price forecasts about a year ago. It’s more than time for an update. You can catch an occasional updated forecast by following my company page on LinkedIn or my personal account on Bluesky. On these platforms, I post a chart daily and fertilizer price forecasts are part of the rotation.

I’ve improved my forecast algorithms. With updates to the models with recent data, the main drivers of fertilizer prices in Canada have changed. I will not go into detail, but the price in the current month is still the best predictor of the price in the next month. Other important predictors include corn and canola prices. Natural gas prices and barge rates on the Mississippi are still on the list but have moved down.

Fertilizer prices

Figure 1 shows fertilizer price data from Statistics and Data Development Section, Intergovernmental and Trade Relations Branch, Alberta Agriculture and Irrigation and USDA NASS. The Alberta fertilizer products are Anhydrous ammonia (82-0-0) full service with applicator, Urea (46-0-0) and Fertilizer (11-51-0). The US fertilizer price is an index (scale x 10) for the whole United States.

The price of Anhydrous ammonia (82-0-0) has generally trended down since the peak in 2022, but the price has slightly increased since bottoming down in summer 2024. The price for Urea (46-0-0) has also declined but it has been more volatile than Anhydrous ammonia. The price for Fertilizer (11-51-0) has been more stable than the other two products, but it has also declined since the peak in 2022. The US fertilizer price index has also generally trended down since peaking in 2022, but has been more stable than the Alberta fertilizer prices.

Figure 1: Alberta fertilizer prices and US fertilizer price index

Forecasts for Alberta fertilizer prices

Figure 2 shows forecasts for fertilizer prices based on Alberta input price data. The economic conditions currently point toward relatively stable fertilizer prices. Crop prices are low, slowing down demand for fertilizers, thus keeping their prices low. The models forecast some seasonality in fertilizer prices but no large price swings.

Figure 2: Forecasts of Alberta fertilizer prices

Forecasts for Statistics Canada fertilizer prices indices

Fertilizer price indices are from the Statistics Canada table 18-10-0266. The indices are for the entire Canada.

Comparing Figures 2 and 3, the indices have moved in sync with Alberta fertilizer prices, although the indices are less volatile. Accordingly, forecasts for the price indices are for more stable prices. The models find that under the current conditions, fertilizer prices should stay relatively stable over the next six months.

Figure 3: Forecasts of Statistics Canada Fertilizer price indices

Conclusion

The economic data do not point toward upward pressures on fertilizer prices. I do not expect the trade wars could cause an increase in fertilizer prices in Canada. In the trade war between Canada and the United States, fertilizers have been mostly exempt, although a 10% US tariff has applied on Canadian potash. That tariff should have a negative impact on Canadian potash prices. I do not expect the Canadian government will put tariffs on fertilizer imports from the United States. If the trade war between the United States and China continues, it will cause lower crop prices in the United States, which will dampen the demand for fertilizers and keep fertilizer prices low.