Here is an example of the daily newsletter for October 29, 2026. Note that this edition was the day after the decision of the Bank of Canada to raise its policy rate. Because of delays in the data published by the Bank of Canada, the probability of a rate change on December 9 is not calculated.
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Important notice: This newsletter is based on actual news but the summary is generated using artificial intelligence. AI-generated summaries may occasionally contain inaccuracies or hallucinations. Readers should verify important facts using the original sources.
Agricultural Economics Daily Brief
The Bank of Canada has raised its policy rate as the U.S. Federal Reserve holds steady, while Canada-U.S. trade talks remain unresolved. Agricultural coverage highlights rising U.S. farm diesel costs, Chinese rice-market intervention and mixed Wednesday commodity futures.
Economic News – Canada
Bank of Canada raises its policy rate to 2.5%
- Context: The Bank of Canada had been weighing inflation risks ahead of its policy decision.
- The Bank raised its key rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, its first increase since July 2023, citing the risk that elevated energy costs could feed broader inflation.
- Officials indicated another increase may be needed. Banks subsequently raised their prime rate by 25 basis points to 4.70%.
- Higher borrowing costs will raise payments for some mortgage holders and add pressure to an already soft housing market.
- Why it matters: More expensive credit can raise financing costs for farms and food businesses, as well as affect household demand.
Sources: BNN Bloomberg, Financial Post, CBC News
Economic News – United States
Federal Reserve holds rates amid inflation concerns
- Context: The Federal Reserve faced persistent inflation as it considered its next policy move.
- The Fed kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.75%–4.00%. The decision passed 10–2, with two officials favouring an increase.
- Chair Kevin Warsh said the Fed was waiting for more information. The central bank also plans to hold seven policy meetings in 2027, down from its customary eight.
- Markets continued to anticipate the possibility of a rate increase in December.
- Why it matters: U.S. interest rates influence borrowing conditions, the dollar and demand across North American agricultural markets.
Sources: BNN Bloomberg, Financial Time, Barchart News
Trade and Trade Policy
Canada says it is not ready to agree to a U.S. trade deal
- Context: Canada-U.S. trade talks are continuing ahead of U.S. midterm elections.
- Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada would agree to a deal only when it suits Canadians and is not currently in a position to reach an agreement.
- Tariffs remain a sticking point, while some Republican candidates have shifted their positions on them ahead of the elections.
- Why it matters: Continued uncertainty over trade terms and tariffs complicates planning for Canadian exporters, including food and agriculture businesses.
Sources: CBC News, Global News
Ag and Food News
China expands rice price support as imports and exports rise
- Context: Fall-harvest pressure has pushed some Chinese rice prices below government support levels.
- Six rice-producing provinces began minimum-price purchases of fall indica rice between Oct. 14 and 20. The reported average paddy price was RMB 2,545 per tonne on Oct. 20, below the RMB 2,580 minimum.
- China imported about 3 million tonnes of rice from January through September, up from about 2.3 million tonnes in the same period a year earlier.
- Government auctions offered a cumulative 16 million tonnes of rice from March to September, but only about 1 million tonnes sold. Rice exports reached more than 1.2 million tonnes in the first nine months, compared with about 900,000 tonnes a year earlier.
- Why it matters: China’s support purchases, stock management and trade flows can affect international rice availability and prices.
Sources: Dim Sums
World Bank forecasts higher global food prices
- Context: Global commodity markets have faced mounting shocks in 2026.
- The World Bank expects food prices to rise 18% between 2025 and 2027.
- Why it matters: Higher food prices could affect consumer purchasing power and costs across food supply chains.
Sources: TVA Nouvelles
Higher diesel prices add an estimated $2.4 billion to U.S. farm costs
- Context: U.S. farmers faced higher fuel expenses during the 2025–26 planting and harvest season.
- An analysis released in October by Democrats on the U.S. Joint Economic Committee estimated that higher diesel prices added $2.4 billion to farmers’ costs.
- Why it matters: Higher fuel bills squeeze farm margins and can add to production costs for the next crop cycle.
Sources: Farmdoc
Global fertilizer prices expected to return to 2025 levels next year
- Context: Oil, natural gas, food and metals prices rose sharply in 2026 as global shocks mounted.
- The World Bank expects fertilizer prices to fall back to 2025 levels next year.
- Why it matters: The forecast points to potential relief in an important farm input cost, though the outlook remains exposed to global market shocks.
Sources: Western Producer
Crops
Ontario crop estimates hold steady as exports run ahead of forecasts
- Context: Ontario crop production estimates remain unchanged in the latest report.
- Ontario corn and soybean exports are trending above their original forecasts, while wheat exports are described as stalled in Russia and Ukraine.
- Why it matters: Export performance can affect the outlook for Ontario grain movement and market availability.
Sources: Farmtario
Regulation
Saskatchewan to allocate agricultural Crown land leases through online auctions
- Context: Saskatchewan is changing how it allocates agricultural Crown land lease opportunities.
- Starting Nov. 9, lease opportunities will be offered online through an ongoing allocation approach.
- Why it matters: The new process may affect how producers access and compete for Crown land.
Sources: Saskatchewan, Western Producer
Health Canada consults on food-characteristics reference table
- Context: Health Canada’s Food and Nutrition Directorate has proposed an amendment to its table of chemical, physical and nutritional characteristics of foods.
- The department has opened a consultation on the proposed change.
- Why it matters: Changes to the reference table may be relevant to food businesses that use it in regulatory or product-related work.
Sources: Governement du Canada
Quebec warns of possible glass fragments in dill pickles
- Context: Quebec’s agriculture ministry issued a consumer warning about a locally prepared food product.
- MAPAQ advised the public not to consume dill pickles prepared and sold by Les brasseurs de légumes S.E.N.C. because they may contain glass fragments.
- Why it matters: The warning highlights a product-safety risk for consumers and a potential issue for the producer.
Sources: Quebec
Quebec shrimp mousse warning cites undeclared allergens
- Context: Quebec’s agriculture ministry issued an allergen warning for shrimp mousse prepared and sold by Charcuterie Jacques-Cartier.
- The product may contain undeclared wheat, eggs, milk and mustard.
- Why it matters: Undeclared allergens pose a health risk to affected consumers and require prompt attention from retailers and food businesses.
Sources: Quebec
Market Summary
- Corn: Corn futures were steady to 3 cents higher across most contracts Wednesday. Improved ethanol output supported the midweek bounce; no futures settlement or contract month was supplied.
- Soybeans: Soybean futures fell 4¾ to 7¼ cents Wednesday. Sharp soyoil losses weighed on the market; USDA also reported a private sale of 120,000 tonnes of 2026–27 soybeans to unknown destinations. No contract month or settlement was supplied.
- Wheat: Wednesday losses extended across the complex: Chicago SRW fell 1 to 11¼ cents, Kansas City HRW lost 2 to 7½ cents, and Minneapolis spring wheat declined 2¾ to 9¼ cents. No contract month or settlement was supplied.
- Canola: ICE canola futures closed slightly lower Wednesday. Fund selling and weakness in Chicago soybeans and soyoil and Malaysian palm oil weighed on values; higher crude oil, limited farmer selling, and gains in European rapeseed and Chicago soymeal offered support. No contract month or settlement was supplied.
- Fed cattle: Live cattle futures lost $2.62 to $3.52 across the board Wednesday, with no contract month or settlement supplied. Trading was described as a month-end correction; cash trade was quiet, and a 2,636-head online auction received no bids. USDA-reported cash sales included $224 per hundredweight live in the North and $350–$365 dressed.
- Lean hogs: Lean hog futures finished mixed Wednesday: front months fell 75 cents to $3.42, while other contracts gained 30 cents to $2.22. The USDA national base hog price, a cash-market measure, was $56.56, down $1.38 from the previous day.
Sources: Barchart News, Barchart News, CountryGuide, Barchart News, CountryGuide, Barchart News, Barchart News
Agricultural futures markets
October 28, 2026
| Commodity | Latest price | Daily change |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | 4.51 USD/bu | +0.3% |
| Soybean | 12.33 USD/bu | -0.4% |
| Soybean oil | 0.66 USD/lb | -1.6% |
| Soybean meal | 335.10 USD/short ton | +0.1% |
| Canola | 7.83 CAD/bu | -0.6% |
| Wheat | 6.00 USD/bu | -1.9% |
| Oats | 3.48 USD/bu | -1.6% |
| Lean hogs | 58.85 USD/cwt | -5.3% |
| Live cattle | 227.03 USD/cwt | -1.6% |
| Feeder cattle | 346.50 USD/cwt | -1.1% |
Data from CME and ICE, calculations by Pouliot Economics Inc.
Exchange rates
October 28, 2026
| Currency or index | Latest value | Daily change | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| US dollar (CAD/USD) | 0.713 | ▲ +0.0% | 28 Oct 2026 |
| European euro (CAD/EUR) | 0.639 | ▲ +0.0% | 28 Oct 2026 |
| Chinese renminbi (CAD/CNY) | 4.751 | ▲ +0.0% | 28 Oct 2026 |
| Japanese yen (CAD/JPY) | 112.613 | ▲ +0.1% | 28 Oct 2026 |
| Mexican peso (CAD/MXN) | 13.293 | ▲ +0.0% | 28 Oct 2026 |
| UK pound sterling (CAD/GBP) | 0.535 | ▲ +0.1% | 28 Oct 2026 |
| South Korean won (CAD/KRW) | 956.938 | ▲ +1.2% | 28 Oct 2026 |
| Brazilian real (CAD/BRL) | 3.818 | ▲ +0.3% | 28 Oct 2026 |
| Australian dollar (CAD/AUD) | 1.012 | ▼ -0.1% | 28 Oct 2026 |
| Canadian Effective Exchange Rate | 112.390 | ▲ +0.1% | 28 Oct 2026 |
Data from the Bank of Canada.
Policy-rate expectations - Canada
| Current policy rate | 2.25% |
| Next decision | 09 December 2026 |
| Probability of a 25 bp decrease | — |
| Probability of no change | — |
| Probability of a 25 bp increase | — |
Estimate based on one-month CORRA futures. Probabilities assume policy-rate changes occur in 25-basis-point increments. They do not constitute a forecast by Pouliot Economics Inc.
Policy-rate expectations - United States
| Current target range | 3.75%–4.00% |
| Next decision | 09 December 2026 |
| Probability of a 25 bp decrease | 0% |
| Probability of no change | 13% |
| Probability of a 25 bp increase | 87% |
Estimate based on 30-Day Federal Funds futures. Probabilities assume that changes to the target range occur in 25-basis-point increments. They do not constitute a forecast by Pouliot Economics Inc.
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Sébastien Pouliot, Ph. D.
Economist | Pouliot economics Inc.
sebastien.pouliot@seplt.com